Tottenham Hotspur will host AC Milan for their second leg of the round of 16 tie in the UEFA Champions League. Spurs suffered a 1-0 defeat in the reverse fixture, and a win can only help their cause for making it to the next round. AC Milan are also looking to make it to the next round after some failures in recent seasons. As both teams aim to advance to the next round, we look at some of the stats that can predict the outcome of the game.
A tight first leg
Brahim Diaz scored the only goal of the first leg in the seventh minute and earned a narrow win for his side. Spurs were unable to break Milan’s defence and now they cannot afford a loss or a draw.
Spurs had 52.57% of the ball possession in the match. After conceding an early goal, the team created 29 positional attacks in total. The positional attacks above show that most of the chances came from the left side. Tottenham Hotspur players attempted 12 shots and only managed to hit the target thrice. They also had a low xG rate. Their xG map shows that Spurs were unable to take enough shots from inside the penalty box. Most of the chances from inside the box were off-target.
AC Milan only created 13 positional attacks but they were more effective on the counterattacks. Overall, the team attempted seven shots and three were on target. Milan were also creative from the right side.
The two visuals above show the ball progression made by both teams in their last meeting. Most of the ball progression came down the left flank, with Tottenham Hotspur making a few on the right side. Both teams have speedy wingers and a target man in the middle. They will look to penetrate the opposition’s penalty box more often and create goal-scoring chances.
Can Spurs deal with Milan’s counterattacking threat?
Tottenham Hotspur will look to stay on the front foot right from the word go. However, they will have to keep AC Milan’s counterattacking threat in their minds. Milan have been quite effective on the counters this season.
AC Milan have averaged 4.57 counterattacks per match this season. They have created 32 attacks in total and attempted ten shots from these attacks. In the last match, the Italian side created four counterattacks and attempted one shot. The first viz shows 14 counterattacks created by Milan against RB Salzburg in their last group match. Milan created 14 attacks and attempted four. Spurs can’t leave their defence open; otherwise, Milan can break them down easily and extend their lead in the tie.
Can Spurs turn around the tie?
Spurs have been inconsistent in front of the goal and throughout the UEFA Champions League campaign. They have only scored eight goals in seven games and that is a big concern. Antonio Conte’s men create 27.43 positional attacks and 1.43 counterattacks per match. They have failed to live up to the expectations and haven’t scored in three UCL matches. Spurs have the quality in their side and can open up any defence. In the last match, Spurs tried numerous ways to penetrate the opposition’s penalty box. They did it on 19 occasions but were not consistent enough to penetrate a particular area. Conte will hope that his players stay calm and composed and show their quality to the Italian champions.
Team news
Tottenham Hotspur are still without their captain Hugo Lloris. Eric Dier will also miss the match as he is serving a suspension.
AC Milan have no injury concerns.
Betting analysis
As per the 1×2 betting odds, Tottenham Hotspur are the favourites to win this match. Their odds stand at 1.94. AC Milan have odds of around 4.1. Spurs have been dominant at home and have won their last three home matches. They will be hoping to progress to the next round. When looking at the over/under lines, the odds rate for over 2.5 goals is 2.08. This will be a tight match, and there are chances that the under lines might thrive.
Tottenham Hotspur will look to make it to the next round when they host AC Milan at home. Both teams have been inconsistent in the current season. AC Milan have a slight advantage, while Spurs need to turn around a one-goal deficit. The match is expected to be tight with no room for a loss.
Visuals via Wyscout and the TFA data viz engine