Sporting CP will host English Premier League leaders Arsenal in their first leg of the round of 16 tie in the UEFA Europa League. The Portuguese giants were eliminated from the UEFA Champions League after finishing third in their group. Arsenal finished their group stage at the top and are looking to add this European trophy to their cabinet. As both teams look to take advantage in the first leg, we look at some of the stats that could predict the outcome of the match.
Sporting CP finished the group stage of the UEFA Champions League with two wins, one draw, and three losses. They scored eight goals and had a low xG rate of 0.81. The defence leaked nine goals after keeping a clean sheet in their first two matches.
Arsenal finished the group stage with five wins and one loss. The Gunners were not on the top of their form but managed to produce positive results. Arsenal scored eight goals and had a high xG rate of 2.19. Their defence conceded three goals and two came in their only defeat of the group stage against PSV.
The group stage
Sporting Lisbon played against Spirs, Frankfurt, and Marseille on the group stage. The above viz shows the percentile rank of the team in comparison to other teams in the UEFA Champions League. Sporting CP had a low percentile rank. They delivered performances in the first two matches but struggled after that.
Arsenal, on the other hand, showed some dominance on the field. They were unable to score enough goals from the threat that they created. However, they gave some encouraging performances and are one of the strong contenders for winning the UEFA Europa League 2022-23. Their pizza chart shows that Arsenal are ranked highly in the possession department. Sporting CP are set to have a tough time against the EPL leaders.
How did Sporting CP qualify for the knockout stage?
Sporting CP played a two-legged tie against FC Midtjylland. The first match ended in a 1-1 draw and the second ended in a comfortable 4-0 away win for the Portuguese club. Sporting CP created 37 positional attacks in the first leg and 21 in the second leg. In both matches, most of the threats came from attacks created from the centre.
The Portuguese side struggled in their UEFA Champions League campaign. They only averaged 17.33 positional attacks and 1.17 counterattacks per match.
In these last two matches, Sporting attempted 27 shots. Of these 27 shots, 13 came in the first match and only two were on target. In the next leg, 14 shots were attempted and six were on target. Sporting CP players saw most of their shots getting blocked inside the penalty box and they also converted some chances from inside the six-yard box. Arsenal will have to deal with their attacking threat.
Why Arsenal are the favourites?
Despite scoring fewer goals in the group stage, Arsenal will be the favourite to register a win against the Portuguese opponents. The Gunners averaged 34.5 positional attacks and one counterattack per match. They attempted 15.83 shots on average per match and managed to hit the target 31.6% of the time. Arsenal scores most of the goals just from the edge of the six-yard box.
Arsenal are capable enough of attacking from both flanks. They are a team that likes to work the ball into the opposition penalty box. The above viz shows the progressive passes from the current UEFA Europa League campaign. It clearly shows that the box has been penetrated from both sides.
Team news
Manuel Ugarte will be a big miss for Sporting CP.
Arsenal have no fresh injury concerns but will be without Eddie Nketiah for this match.
Betting analysis
According to the 1×2 betting odds, Arsenal are the favourites to win the match. They have high odds of 2.1 to win the match. The reason behind such high odds is that Sporting CP are not an easy team to beat at home. There are chances that the match might end in a draw. This is expected to be a tight match and the under lines are expected to thrive.
This is one of the interest ties in the knockout stage of the UEFA Europa League. Both teams are performing well in their domestic leagues. Arsenal are leading the Premier League table and are the favourites of making to the final four of the competition.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine