Real Madrid will host Liverpool for their second leg of the round of 16 tie in the UEFA Champions League. The English side needs a miracle to cover a deficit of three goals. After going 2-0 up early in the first half of the first leg, Liverpool conceded five goals, and Real Madrid won the match 5-2. Both keepers committed a mistake, and that led to a goal in the match. Now Liverpool have a huge task in hand going into the second leg. We look at some of the stats from the current UEFA Champions League campaign that could predict the outcome of the match.
Real Madrid have registered five wins, one draw, and one loss in the seven UEFA Champions League games played this season. They have scored a mammoth total of 20 goals and average 2.39 xG per match. The defence has leaked eight goals in total. Liverpool, on the other hand, have won five and lost two matches. The Reds have registered 20 goals, with seven coming in a single game. They average 2.25 xG per match, and the defence has conceded 11 goals. The above pizza chart shows the percentile rank of the teams in comparison to each other and other teams in the UEFA Champions League. Liverpool players like to press high and have succeeded most of the time. Real Madrid have been at the top of their game and are ranked among the top performers of the season.
Comeback in the first leg
Liverpool took an early lead and were two goals up by the 14th minute. They created a total of 37 positional attacks and two counterattacks. However, the Reds failed to take shots from these attacks and only managed seven shots towards the end of the match. They managed to hit the target four times and score both goals from the edge of the six-yard box.
After conceding two early goals, the comeback started in the 21st minute, and then Real Madrid scored the equaliser in the first half. They scored three goals in the second half. Real Madrid only created 16 positional attacks, but they created a huge total of seven counterattacks. The defending champions attempted nine shots, and six were on target. Carlo Ancelotti’s men were accurate enough and had a high conversion rate.
What can be the attacking zones?
Real Madrid kept 46.46% of the possession and attempted 515 passes with an 86.6% accuracy rate. Ancelotti’s men advanced on the left flank in this match. Their progressive passes show that a few diagonal passes were attempted to change the direction of play. Most of the box penetrations also came from that particular side, and a few from the right side. Liverpool will have to deal with Vinicius Junior’s pace on the left flank.
Liverpool were constantly attacking from the right side. The opponents found space behind the defenders and decided to break the defence from that side. Liverpool players attempted 560 passes and had an accuracy rate of 85.71%. They failed to penetrate the box from the left side on most occasions. Jurgen Klopp might ask his players to change the direction of play and put pressure on Real Madrid.
Key players
Vinicius Junior is Real Madrid’s top-scorer in the UEFA Champions League 2022/23. He has netted six goals and two assists in seven games. The 22-year-old scored the first goal for Real Madrid and that opened the gates for four more goals. He attempted three shots and all were on target. Vinicius Jr. scored twice in the first leg.
Mo Salah was gifted a goal in the first leg. He took his tally to eight goals in the competition. Salah attempted three shots and one was on target. One of his shots was blocked inside the six-yard box. The forward will have to play a huge role to ensure qualification to the next round.
Team news
There are no fresh injury concerns in both camp. Liverpool will go with a strong playing 11 for this match.
Betting analysis
As per the 1×2 betting odds, Real Madrid are the favourites to win the match. They have an odds rate of 2.31, while their opponents have a rate of 2.84. Liverpool were the favourites to win the first leg. They lost their recent match and got hammered in the first leg. This has made Real Madrid the favourites to win the match. For the over/under lines, expect the over lines to thrive.
Liverpool faces their toughest test of the season. This was the only competition in which Jurgen Klopp’s men had a chance to lift the title. They are way behind in the English Premier League title race and are eliminated from the domestic cup. Now Klopp and his players need to find a solution to turn the deficit around. After a first-leg dominance, Real Madrid are likely to go to the next round of the competition.
Visuals via Wyscout and the TFA data viz engine
