Nottingham Forest will host Newcastle United in the opening fixture of Round 28 in the English Premier League. The Magpies are looking to make it to Europe, while Forest are looking to survive in the league. Both teams have different missions this season, and they are looking to achieve them. We now look at some of the stats that could predict the outcome of the match.
Nottingham Forest have won six, drawn eight, and lost 12 matches this season. They have scored 21 goals and have an average xG rate of 1.18. Their defence has leaked 47 goals, with nine coming in the last three games. The above viz shows the percentile rank of the team in comparison to other teams in the English Premier League. Nottingham Forest are ranked at the bottom in most of the stats. This is one of the reasons behind their struggles in the top flight.
Newcastle United have won 11, drawn 11, and lost three matches this season. Eddie Howe’s men have scored 37 goals and averaged 1.83 xG per match. They have the best defence in the league and have only conceded 18 goals. Newcastle United have a decent percentile rank and are ranked above average. They like to press and have experienced a high success rate among other teams.
Newcastle United returns to winning ways
The Magpies lost momentum in the race for the top four. They were winless in five matches before Wolves visited them. Miguel Almiron came off the bench to score the winner for his side.
Newcastle United averages 31.13 positional attacks and 1.64 counterattacks per match. They take 12.44 shots on average and manage to hit the target 37% of the time. After failing to score in the previous two matches, the Magpies finally netted two goals against Wolves. They created 37 positional attacks and four counterattacks in the match. Overall, the team had 18 shots attempts and eight were on target. The above visuals show that most of the attacks came from the left side. Newcastle United also managed to take a few shots from inside the penalty box and had a high xG rate. Forest will have a tough time in this match.
What were the reasons behind the recent struggles?
After keeping 12 clean sheets in the first 20 games, Newcastle United have failed to keep them in the last five games. The defence faces 9.88 shots per match. In the last five matches, they have faced 50 shots, and seven have found the back of the net. Teams have started to find gaps in the defence, and Eddie Howe’s men have to stop their next opponents from scoring goals.
Can Forest break Newcastle United’s sturdy defence?
Nottingham Forest have found ways to secure points lately. They average 22.27 positional attacks and 2.12 counterattacks. Forest averages 9.12 shots per match and have a 33.33% accuracy rate. In the last two matches, Nottingham Forest have netted three goals. The team has averaged 30 positional attacks and 1.5 counterattacks per match. They have taken 17 shots and nine were on target. They will once again look to find gaps in Newcastle United’s defence.
Key player
Kieran Trippier provided his fifth assist of the season in the last game. He is a threat from set-pieces and is leading his side to a respectable finish in the current season. The Englishman is constantly looking to find a player inside the penalty box and has numerous shot assists. He will look to create more goals in the coming game.
Team news
Wayne Hennessey, Brennan Johnson, and Chris Wood got injured in their last outing. These three players are a major doubt for this match.
Anthony Gordon will miss this trip due to an injury. Joelinton is also serving his suspension and will be unavailable.
Betting analysis
According to the 1×2 betting odds, Newcastle United are the favourites to take three points away from this match. They have an odds of 1.7 to win the game. Nottingham Forest are winless in their last five matches. Their odds rate is around 5.48 to win the game. As for the over/under lines, there are chances that a maximum of two goals are scored in this match. Both teams haven’t been prolific goal scorers, and this might be a low-scoring affair.
Newcastle United will look to make it back-to-back wins in the English Premier League. Eddie Howe’s men had lost their momentum in the race for the top four. Now they have a chance to catch Spurs, who are just four points ahead of them and have played two more games. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, will make it tough for the visitors and win the match in their road to survival.
Visuals via Wyscout and the TFA data viz engine