How to Calculate DNB or Asian Handicap + or – 0 odds
Note: this is an intermediate-level betting guide. If you want to start from scratch, check out our 1×2 betting guide.
Assuming that the reader knows how to calculate basic 1×2 odds, then DNB is an interesting market to learn about. Learning the basic mathematical mechanism behind DNB odds will be very useful to understand Asian Handicap correctly as you progress as a bettor.
Draw no Bet is a highly misunderstood market from a mathematical point of view. People often look at DNB and calculate the risk based on the false assumption that the draw is the main factor of the bet. In fact, draw no bet is precisely the opposite: what matters to calculate the odds and evaluate whether there’s some value or not, is the chances of each team winning the game.
The Math Behind DNB and Asian Handicap Level Ball
Let’s use a real-life example that happened a few minutes ago. I was watching the Saturday game between Liverpool and Chelsea, and the score was 0-0 during the second half.
I checked the Asian Handicap and Draw no Bet lines and Chelsea DNB (or +0) was trading at 2.40!
In theory, that didn’t make much sense. The game should be a bit more levelled based on the form of both teams, especially considering the crisis of Liverpool.
But what happens in practice on the pitch is what matters. Chelsea was playing a bit better than Liverpool at the time I noticed the 2.40 price (odd) for AH +0 (DNB).
But how to determine whether The Blues’ odds had any value?
Calculating DNB odds (Asian Handicap Level Ball lines and odds)
How to start organizing the mathematical and reasoning process of a draw no bet market? Here’s the trap: you shouldn’t think about the draw. The first step is to forget completely about the draw. You exclude it mathematically from the calculation. Think about it! The name of the market is DRAW NO BET, which means, the bet is not about the draw. You are in it for the victory of a specific team!
Explaining it qualitatively, in this case, the question here is: Is the chance of Chelsea winning this game bigger or smaller than the chances of the Reds?
I thought it was safe to assume that the chances of the Blues winning were at least the same, if not bigger than Liverpool’s during the second half around 65’.
If we consider the chances to be equal then the fair odds (odds without any value) would be 2.0
The calculation is simple.
Chances of Liverpool winning: 50%
Chances of Chelsea winning: 50%
So the fair odds for Chelsea to win, excluding the draw, would be 2.0 as per the formula below
100% (all possible results excluding the draw) divided by 50% (chances of The Blues winning)
100% / 50% = 2.0
If the odds, in this case, were significantly bigger than 2.0, It means there would be some value.
It’s important to note that the calculation of underlying probabilities is the true skill of the punter, but it’s crucial to understand the way odds are formed and how they should be calculated.
In this example, we had 2.40 as DNB (Asian Handicap +0) odds for Chelsea to win. Their performance as I watched the game was similar to Liverpool with some moments of better chances.
So the odds should be below 2.0 technically as they had a slightly bigger chance of winning the game (50+%) and any odd below 2.0 represents a chance bigger than 50% of an event happening.
It’s quite ok to take ‘clues’ from the narrator and other sources if you like them and see they have a strong record of analysing things keenly.
Live betting is all about a precise moment of the game. In this case, I hadn’t even watched the first half, but the live comments backed my case which was based more broadly on the general form of the clubs and my knowledge of long-term betting tendencies.
Summary: Draw no Bet and Asian Handicap +0 Betting
That game ended up 0-0, and it’s fair to say the teams had about the same chances of winning after I noticed the 2.40 odds for Chelsea DNB. This means that probably there was some value in this situation. The odds actually dropped to around 2.33 after I noticed it, which represents a drop of 5% in the potential betting prize, which is a sizeable drop for a very liquid market like The Premier League.
Value betting is all about spotting situations like this. It’s like fishing with the right bait, at the right place. Sometimes the weather will help, and sometimes it won’t, but if you are consistent and show up with the right skills and methods, you’ll fish profits in the long run.
