Premier League 1×2 Betting Guide
by Dan King under the supervision of Lucas Mondelo
Explanation of 1×2 betting – Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
It is an extremely popular option for punters on football matches, newcomers or not. These are odds on the outcome of the game but also the odds shape most other betting markets such as Asian handicap, goal markets, correct score markets etc.
We will use the current market odds of Man United in the English Premier League against Nottingham Forest to explain. Please note, we’ll use the easiest betting odds system out there which is the decimal system.
Advantages of the home ‘1’ vs away ‘2’ side
The hosts (in this case ‘1’) are naturally starting games with an advantage due to all the benefits which come from playing in their own ground. Home support, familiarity with stadium and pitch, the opponent will have travelled further etc.
When two teams are quite well matched, the favouritism may go to the home side in football sports betting markets.
In the example used here, however, Man Utd would be considered favourites whether home or away, given the perceived difference in quality they have over the opponent.
Betting the ‘1’
In the 1×2 system, the odds for the event 1 represent the chances of the hosts winning the game. In this example, the market odds right now are 1.31 for Manchester United to win.
It means if you bet £100 on Man Utd to win the game, your profit would be £131. The profit may not seem much at first glance, but the chances that you win it are high at the time of writing.
Betting the ‘x’
If you believe the match will end in a draw, then the odds available for you are 5.4 on average. If you bet the same stake, you could win £440. In the 1×2 system, the chances of the match ending in a draw are represented by the X.
Betting the ‘2’
In the 1×2 system, the chances of the visitors winning are represented by the ‘2’ number. So now looking at the betting on the away ‘2’ side, in this case Nottingham Forest to win, a £100 stake returns a whopping £900.
There are several other betting markets, but the main idea here is to understand the nature of the betting markets: the more likely an event is to happen (in the eyes of the markets) the smaller the betting odds.
What dictates the betting market?
There is a big misconception regarding betting odds. Many believe that the betting odds are fixed and determined by the bookies. Well, the initial numbers are exactly that, but odds are, by nature, fluctuating numbers.
If, for example, key players of any team pick up injuries after the initial odds are released, the prices of 1×2 explained above will change.
How dramatically they change will be in direct correlation to news since the initial opening of the betting market. Let’s say for example, as a result of injuries on world cup duty, Man Utd lost Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Varane and Lisandro Martinez for the next league match. These are all deemed important players which if absent, reduced the chances of a home win. As a result, the Manchester United to win price to win vs Nottingham would drift significantly, perhaps out to 1.55/1.65.
It is also important to know that the ‘opinion’ of the bettors counts too. The market is an expression that summarizes the influence of both the sportsbooks and the bettors.
If the bookie/house receives too many bets on one outcome, they need to drop the price to avoid damage they cannot cover. So for example, if there is a massive run to bet on Nottingham Forest ‘2’ @ 10, then the odds will drop to let’s say 7 or 8, perhaps lower.