One of the most anticipated clashes of the UEFA Champions League 2022/23 will take place at Anfield. Defending champions Real Madrid will travel to England and take on last year’s runners-up, Liverpool, in the first leg of the round of 16 matches. Both these teams are looking to add another trophy to their cabinet. Real Madrid recently won the FIFA Club World Cup, while Liverpool have returned to form in the league. The Reds have a huge task in hand and will look to avenge the losses of the 2017–18 and 2021/22 seasons. We now take a look at some of the stats that show what the Reds can produce in this crucial match.
The Group stage
Liverpool finished second in Group-A behind Serie A leaders, Napoli. The Reds lost the opening fixture of the competition and then went on to win five matches in a row. The above viz shows the percentile rank of Liverpool in comparison to other teams in the UEFA Champions League 2022–23. Liverpool have been a dominant side under Jurgen Klopp. The pizza chart above also expresses the same. Liverpool are ranked high in various departments, especially in attack. They like to press on the ball and often like to stay high up on the pitch. However, the match against Real Madrid will be their toughest test of the season.
A dreadful start to the campaign
Jurgen Klopp’s men were left all over the place when Napoli ran riot over them and won the match 4-1. Liverpool’s defence made a couple of errors, and that cost them a heavy defeat. Despite having more possession of the ball, Liverpool were unable to contain Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the counterattacks. Napoli hit Liverpool with four counterattacks in that match, and all of them ended with shots. This is what Liverpool might have to deal with against Real Madrid, who also have a good pace on the counter. Real Madrid averages 1.5 counterattacks per match and takes shots 66.67% of the time.
Liverpool in the attack
After that heavy loss, Liverpool won their next five matches, including a 7-1 victory over Rangers. Jurgen Klopp’s men scored 17 goals in the group stage and averaged 2.3 xG per match. They took 16.83 shots per 90 minutes and had a good accuracy rate of 46.5%. The above viz shows that the Reds managed to find a few spaces just outside and inside the six-yard box. These shot attempts often led to a goal.
Mohamed Salah was their key player in the group stage. The Egyptian scored seven goals, including a hat-trick against Rangers after coming off the bench. Mo Salah likes to come in from the right side and often opens up his body to score towards the right side of the goalkeeper. He has led Liverpool’s attack in the past and will once again have the responsibility of taking his side to the next round.
Liverpool’s high pressing ability and their efficiency on press have allowed the team to recover the ball in dangerous areas. The above viz shows all the high regains made by Liverpool this season. Liverpool made 118 counter-pressing and 38 dangerous recoveries in the group stage. Most of these dangerous recoveries have been made in the final third. This shows that Real Madrid will have to clear their line properly, otherwise Liverpool players will be ready to pounce on the loose balls and create chances for them.
Progression with the ball
Liverpool are not a team that focuses on attacking from one particular side. The Reds like to keep the ball and averaged 56.1% ball possession in the group stage. They attempted 525.17 passes per match on average and had an accuracy rate of 85.4%. The progressive passes viz show that Liverpool players have attempted box penetration passes from both flanks and have also made an effort to pass from the centre. A few of these passes are in the form of a cross. Liverpool are a team that likes to put crosses into the opposition’s penalty box. They averaged 17.17 crosses and had a 27.2% accuracy rate. There was a high success rate from the left flank. Jurgen Klopp’s men will have to show more accuracy with their crosses and try to get on the end of them to score goals.
Can Real Madrid defend their crown?
The 14 times European Champions have won this title five times in their previous nine campaigns. They are looking for their sixth in ten seasons. The Spanish giants finished at the top of their group with four wins, one draw, and one loss. They scored 15 goals with an average xG rate of 2.53 per match. Real Madrid were also dominant at keeping the ball. They had more pass attempts than Liverpool and were even better in the attack. Carlo Ancelotti’s men averaged 18.33 shots and had a 40% accuracy rate. The defence leaked six goals in the group stage. This will be a crucial encounter as the team will look to carry an advantage home.
Team news
Liverpool could be without Darwin Nunez for this match. He could be a big miss in this match. However, Diogo Jota has recovered and will be looking to get into the starting lineup along with Roberto Firmino.
Real Madrid were without Karim Benzema in their league fixture. However, he could return to the team for this match. Toni Kroos and Aurelien Tchouameni are definitely out.
Betting Analysis
As per the 1×2 betting odds, Liverpool are the favourites to win the match. They have an odds of around 2.3 to win the match. Real Madrid have odds of just around three. The chances of drawing have an odds rate of 3.6. This will be a tight match which could end up in anyone’s favour. As for the over/under lines, the under lines might thrive in this tight match. The odds rate for under 2.5 goals is 2.38.
Liverpool have a chance to take some advantage in the away match. They improved after the first match and only conceded two goals in the next five matches. Jurgen Klopp’s side will be confident after back-to-back wins in the league. They will look to take revenge for the last year’s final.
Visuals via Wyscout and the TFA data viz engine