Chelsea and Fulham face each other in the opening fixture of gameweek 22 in the English Premier League. The hosts are struggling to find their rhythm under Graham Potter and sit tenth in the league table. As far as Fulham are concerned, they have performed decently in the current season following their promotion from the EFL Championship. Chelsea have struggled this season, and that led to a lot of transfer business in the recently concluded transfer window. Both teams met in January at Craven Cottage in the reverse fixture, and the hosts came out as 2-1 winners. Now that both teams are fighting for different ambitions, we look at some of their stats that could predict the outcome of the match.
A disappointing season for Chelsea
Chelsea are having a difficult campaign in the English Premier League. The Blues sit tenth in the league with eight wins, five draws, and seven losses. One of the primary reasons behind their struggles is their failure to convert their chances. Chelsea have scored only 22 goals in 20 games played and averages 1.35 xG per match. The defence has conceded 20 goals, with an average xGA rate of 1.42. At home, the Blues have scored 13 goals in nine matches. Their defence has conceded seven in as many matches. The above pizza chart shows the percentile rank of the team in comparison to other teams in the English Premier League. Chelsea have been dominant in keeping the ball and averages 57.29% possession per match. In the other departments, the Blues have a percentile rank nearing average. Potter will hope to see a bit of improvement in the team’s attacking as well as defensive stats.
An impressive return to the EPL
Fulham were famous for getting promoted and going back to the EFL Championship after spending one or two seasons in the top division. However, things have changed this time, and they comfortably sit seventh in the English Premier League table. The Cottagers have won nine, drawn four, and lost eight matches this season. They have managed to score 32 goals and conceded 30 in return. Fulham have an average xG rate of 1.51 and an xGA rate of 1.94 per match. Their pizza chart shows that the Cottagers have performed decently in all departments. Their overall performances have been the key to their success. Fulham have performed decently on their travels. They have managed to win four, draw one, and lose five matches. They have won three of their last five matches on their travels. Marco Silva’s men will come to Stamford Bridge with their eyes set on three points.
What happened in the previous meeting?
Chelsea visited Craven Cottage in mid-January and suffered a 2-1 defeat. Joao Felix made his debut for the Blues but was sent off at the hour’s mark for a bad tackle.
Fulham took the lead in the first half through former Chelsea winger Willian. The Cottagers created 33 positional attacks in that match and attempted five shots from these attacks. Overall, they attempted nine shots in total, and five were on target. Most of the shots came from the left side. Fulham created more positional attacks than their average rate of 28.67 attacks per match. The average shots per game average 10.76 for the Cottagers, with a 38.5% accuracy rate. They created enough chances to earn a well-deserved three points.
Chelsea dominated the match from the start. The visitors created 26 positional attacks and were very efficient, as they attempted 14 shots from these attacks. Overall, the team took 20 shots, and eight were on target. The Blues would have been disappointed with the end result and their inability to convert these chances into a goal. Chelsea averages 29.8 positional attacks per match. They take 10.7 shots and have an accuracy rate of 34.6%. They attempted almost double the number of shots but converted on their only chance. Graham Potter will hope for a room for improvement against this Fulham side.
Key Players
Mason Mount has been one of the top performers in a Chelsea shirt. He is their top-rated player and a regular under Graham Potter. Mount has scored three goals and assisted twice this season. The shot assist map above shows that the 24-year-old is their corner taker. He has also provided a few passes into the opposition penalty box and will look to do so in the coming match against Fulham.
Aleksandar Mitrovic is Fulham’s leading goal scorer this campaign. He missed the reverse fixture due to an injury. The Serbian striker has scored 11 goals in 17 appearances. He could have added more, but the 28-year-old has missed three penalty kicks. Mitrovic is a poacher and often finds space in dangerous goal-scoring positions. He will look to make his mark in front of the Stamford Bridge crowd.
Team news
As for Chelsea, Jorginho has left the club. Graham Potter has plenty of options to choose from. He might hand Mykhailo Mudryk his first start in a Chelsea shirt. A few other players will be waiting for their league debuts. Enzo Fernandez could also get a few minutes on the pitch. Joao Felix will serve his last match of suspension.
There are no fresh injury concerns in Fulham’s camp. Susa Lukic was signed on deadline day, and he might get some minutes for the first time in a Fulham shirt. Cedric Soares will also hope to make his debut in this match.
Betting Analysis
Chelsea are the favourites to win the match and have winning odds of around 1.65. They have a strong squad in comparison to Fulham and recently played a goalless draw against Liverpool, which they dominated. The chances of a draw have an odds rate of just above four. Fulham’s chances of winning have an odds rating of just over 5.5. As for the over/under lines, the odds rate for over and under 2.5 goals is nearing two. The last meeting between these two teams ended in a 2-1 win for Fulham. This means that the chances of scoring over 2.5 goals are high. However, if Chelsea manages to find their defensive rhythm and control the game, then this match could end 1-0 or 2-0 in their favour. The Blues are the strong favourites to win the match.
The Blues will look to return to winning ways and fight for European places. They are closer to relegation than they are to the top of the table. Fulham have played decently in the first half of the season. They will also look to end this season on a high and finish in the top half of the table. With both teams fighting for different goals, this match could either go one-sided or Fulham could create another upset against tougher opponents.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine