Manchester United v Crystal Palace: Betting Preview
To say that The Red Devils recently lived a turmoil is a big understatement. Depending on how far we look in the history books of Man Utd, we can say they haven’t been truly stable since Sir Alex retired.
However, if we stick to the most recent events, we can say that the return home of Cristiano Ronaldo was as horrible as a Man City or Liverpool fan could possibly wish for.
Who would say that after literally firing Ronaldo during the World Cup, Man Utd would stabilize in the Champions League qualification zone with 39 points as of Feb 4th?
Football is amazing because of stories like these. Football is also a sport and charisma is always a factor. Even when players underperform or do questionable things, managers rarely have a lot of sympathy from the fans, especially after such a long spell as Sir Alex Ferguson enjoyed, with tons of Premier League titles and a couple of Champions League trophies.
Qualtitative Football Analysis
The hosts are 3rd in the classification table with 39 points, and to say they have a shot when it comes to winning the EPL title may be an exaggeration, but the morale and moods have improved a lot at Old Trafford.
Crystal Palace on the other hand has stabilized in terms of not facing a major threat to be relegated to the Championship once again.
We can expect the usual duel that history books suggest with the hosts as favourites. The question here is how much of a favourite can Man Utd be considered in this game, as the Red Devils have been gaining traction recently.
Manchester United has won their last 5 games at home, both when we consider the English Premier League games and the Domestic Cups.
The visitors, on the other hand, lost 2 out of 3 in the last EPL away games, and the only points collected away from home in the Premiership after The World Cup were those against Bournemouth which is struggling at the 18th position of the classification table right now.
But how does that translate to betting numbers?
Betting Preview and Analysis
The current 1×2 odds suggest a major advantage to Man Utd with odds of 1.38 to win this game.
The odds for a draw in the 1×2 match result market are 4.50, while the odds for an unlikely victory of Bournemouth are 8.0 on average.
In the Asian Handicap professional betting market, the odds are -1.25 Man Utd @1.90 on average.
In the last 4 games on the road, the visitors either won the game or didn’t lose by more than just one goal.
Last time they lost by more than 1 goal was against Everton back in October.
Perhaps there’s some value in the selection Crystal Palace +1.25 Asian Handicap line @ ~2.1, but that certainly is a selection for the brave bettors out there!
Even trying to hedge this big handicap early in the game seems like trying to swim against a strong tide as the hosts are absolutely expected to pressure in the first minutes of the game.
The market is evermore educated these days and big handicaps don’t automatically translate as huge over/under lines as they once did. This means the o/u 2.5 lines around even don’t seem to hold any kind of special value.
EPL Analysis: Betting Previews Coverage (Round 22)
Starting with this round we’re covering all games of the week of the EPL with match previews.
Check out other interesting links for the Saturday and Sunday matches below
Everton – Arsenal: Betting Preview
Aston Villa – Leicester: Betting Preview
Brentford – Southampton: Betting Preview
Wolves – Liverpool: Betting Preview
