Leeds v Southampton: EPL Betting Preview
This shall be the most melancholic game of the round as it involves the two teams at the bottom of the English Premier League classification table.
Only a point separates these struggling sides. After 23 games played, the hosts have collected 19 points while the visitors have 18.
Not much separates these sides in the table, and when we consider their recent record, the situation is similar.
The visitors have managed to win on the road against the struggling Chelsea of Potter, but one game isn’t a lot to identify a tendency here. The victory seems more related to the issues of The Blues than a very dominant game of The Saints.
In the betting world, professionals identify certain tendencies and standard prices (odds) to some specific scenarios.
If two teams of similar form are to face each other, and their level of quality is also perceived as similar, then we have a classic scenario.
Of course, that implies a normal home factor situation. One of the biggest mistakes of beginners in the professional betting world is to feel astonished by the mathematical difference in the expectations of a host and a visitor.
The home factor is real! I’ll never forget the words of my first betting mentor 15 years ago.
For this game, we have a clear situation. The market expects the hosts to win and the chances for that are about 50%, and the chance of any other result, that is a draw or victory of the visitors is also 50%.
That translates as ‘1’ odds, that is the odds for Leeds to win at 2.0 on average.
In the Asian Handicap market, the probabilities are divided in 2 most likely scenarios, which means the odds for Leeds -0.5 @ 2.0 naturally are also 2.0, and the selection Southampton +0.5 @2.0 is the other part of the ‘odds scale’.
Teams that are struggling aren’t good pre-match bets in my opinion, so waiting until the kick off to check out how the match is unfolding is probably the best scenario for wise bettors.
If the hosts start the game better, the -0.5 @2.0 or ‘1’ odds can hold some value, and if the visitors score first, the home factor usually makes the hosts odds valuable during the score of 0-1 if that happens quite early in the game, that is until the 30th minute as a rule of thumb.
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