Leeds United – Manchester United: Betting Preview
Match Analysis
Manchester United Team News and Form
After the turmoil involving Ronaldo, Man Utd improved a lot and they have a strong record in the last 5 with 4 victories and one draw. The only draw, however, happened against Leeds in their last game, on February 8th, valid for the Premier League game week 8, a postponed game.
Manchester United will have the chance to make the difference between them and their opponents below them in the table a bit bigger as Newcastle dropped points on the road against Bournemouth and Tottenham lost against Leicester also on the road.
While reaching rivals Man City may be sound like a long shot right now, as the Citizens are two points clear with one game less, fighting to remain in the top 4 is crucial to secure a spot in the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League, as their path on Europa League to reach top European level in the coming season isn’t quite easy, as the Red Devils will face Barcelona next week in the Europa League clash of next Thursday.
In terms of team news, we should expect a similar line-up compared with the last game against Leeds. Casemiro is still suspended, and the injured Antony, Anthony Martial and Scott McTominay will not be available according to the last interview of Erik ten Hag.
Leeds United Team News
Michael Skubala is expected to remain Leeds United interim boss for the Man Utd game. The hosts are struggling in the 2022/23 season, and right now they’re only a point clear above Everton. The Toffees are the first team in the relegation zone right now with 18 points.
In normal circumstances, any team in The Premier League facing the tough challenges of this tournament with an interim coach is always bad news and a symptom of a larger problem.
This is exactly the situation here. The hosts didn’t win a single EPL game in their last 5 Premiership games.
The last time Leeds won at home in the Premier League was against Bournemouth, back in November (before the World Cup break).
Betting Analysis and Preview: Leeds vs Man Utd
The team news and the last game between the teams suggest different things. While the record of Leeds is poor in the short term, they collected a point on the road against Man Utd in the last game of both teams, valid for the postponed game from Round 8.
However, history suggests that even when an unexpected result happens, if the teams play a sequence of games in a row, the true tendency of the game will show up eventually.
This means Man Utd deserves a handicap of -0.25 to -0.5 @2.0 in my opinion and ‘2’ odds in the 1×2 system of circa 1.6 to 1.8.
As someone with good punter habits, I calculated these odds before checking the market odds to avoid bias, and I’m happy to say my calculations are in line with the highly competitive professional betting market of the Premier League: the current odds for the victory of Man Utd are 1.88 on average, and the stable line in the AH market is Man Utd -0.5 @1.89.
Over/Under lines in the AH market stabilized between 2.75 to 3 for even odds. That reflects the number of goals produced by both teams at home and away in the last rounds, as well as the effect of the team news – especially on Man Utd’s side due to the injuries – which impacts their capacity to be aggressive and score goals.
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