Everton v Arsenal: Betting Preview

Everton is living in a major crisis and that’s not breaking news. But the betting markets are all about numbers and chances and calculating properly the size of a crisis in this case, and the real size of the advantage that should be awarded to The Gunners in the betting markets. Let’s dive into the math…

Qualitative Sports Analysis

Everton and the crisis of the Blue Side of Liverpool

Everton has a sequence of 1 draw and 4 losses in the last 5. However, the one point they collected on year’s eve was against Man City and that is a hard point to earn in any circumstance, especially for Everton.

After the world cup, they lost all their 3 games at home, and considering their 5 last games at home valid for the Premier League, they won one and lost 4, the victory being the ‘oldest’ of those fixtures, against Crystal Palace back in October.

On top of that, Everton underwent a recent manager change, and it’s fair to say this is going to be the biggest challenge of the career of Sean Dyche, considering the size of Everton as a football club.

However, the new coach effect is real and that’s where the hopes of the Blues will probably be today.

Will Arsenal Lift the Premier League trophy?

Arsenal, on the other hand, enjoyed a brilliant season start. After the injury of their Brazilian key player Gabriel Jesus, there were questions about whether this would impact their performance during the second part of the EPL season as well as their winter transfer window movements.

The transfer window didn’t exactly aim to bring a big name like Gabriel Jesus.

In fact, the performance of Trossard, Jorginho and Jakub Kiwior will only be witnessed from now on.

Since the World Cup, however, the fear of a major decline in productivity of the Gunners was dissipated as the North London side collected 13 out of 15 points since Boxing Day.

The question now is simple: will they keep their nerves under control until the end of the season? Because Manchester City has lifted four out of the last five Premier League trophies, and The Gunners haven’t touched this kind of silverware since the days of Henry and Arsène Wenger. The psychological aspects of this title fight are way different when we compare Arsenal and the Blue Side of Manchester.

Betting Markets Analysis

As we can expect, the markets aren’t oblivious to the reality of both sides. The question here is simple: is the handicap too big? Are the 1×2 odds accurate, is Arsenal that much of a favourite?

Let’s have a look at the numbers…

The odds for Arsenal to win in the 1×2 markets are 1.39, on average. That’s probably about right.

But how hungry would Arsenal be for a second goal once they manage to eventually be ahead in the score?

The Asian Handicap lines stabilized around -1.25 Arsenal, and the odds for this market are 1.96 on average right now. Ouch! Such odds are quite big, and they imply that Everton has a big chance of losing by more than one goal.

I’m not a big fan of big handicaps and that’s not breaking news. But let’s see the last 5 games of Arsenal on the road and the last 5 of Everton as a host in the EPL.

In the last 5 EPL Home games, Everton lost by 2 goals or more on 2 out of 5 occasions. The Gunners have beaten the home team by a 2-goal difference or more in 3 out of their last 5 games as a Premiership visitor.

Perhaps there’s some justice in the odds, but I still prefer to check this game live before any betting action. Facing the leaders almost always makes a team in a crisis extra cautious, and we can’t forget about the new coach effect that might help Everton here.

I believe the fair odds can be between -0.75 and -1 Arsenal @2.0, but I wouldn’t bet before the kick off here.

I don’t have specific thoughts about the over/under markets as the new coach effect brings way too much unpredictability in my opinion.