On Saturday, Turf Moor will witness the clash between the bottom two in the Premier League table where Norwich City take on Burnley away from home.
We use stats to predict the result.
The hosts Burnley sit 19th in the table with two draws and four defeats in six matches. It has been a disastrous start for Sean Dyche’s men as they are still searching for their first win of the season and most certainly even they believe a fixture against Norwich might just be the best way to open their account.
Burnley nearly clinched a victory against Leicester City before Jamie Vardy levelled the proceedings at the end of the match.
Dyche’s men have scored five goals this season from an xG of 8.06 clearly underperforming it. They have really struggled to score more than once in a match this season which has been their biggest issue as they have failed to come back after conceding more than one goal. They scored just one goal even in their 2-2 draw against Leicester while one was an own goal. The Clarets have conceded 11 times in return which has not helped them in any possible way.
Norwich City are the only team that outperform Burnley this season in terms of performance and not in a good way. Six matches, six defeats, zero points to show from, the Canaries find themselves at the bottom of the shelf on 20th position. They had been just promoted from the Championship this season and if this continues they will find themselves back in the second tier again.
Daniel Farke’s men have scored just two goals the lowest in the league from an xG of 5.01, the lowest in the league as well. Even with such a low xG, they have not been able to be on par with it. They boast the worst defence in the league with 16 goals conceded and their overreliance on Teemu Pukki for scoring goals has definitely let them down. Pukki has scored both of their goals but with such a low amount of support from his teammates, the Finnish has not been able to create a huge impact.
The Clarets are fourth in the league in terms of successful passes into the penalty area with 69 passes. Their finishing has not been top-notch but this clearly shows that Burnley have hugely dominated and created a lot of chances. Coming up against the Norwich defence, Burnley can definitely better that finishing ratio. Maxwell Cornet will be the player to keep an eye on.
Norwich are on the lower side of the league even in this metric with 47 successful passes into the box. If they cannot score and dominate in attack, it can pose to be a big problem for the Canaries to contain Burnley’s attack throughout the 90 minutes.
Jay Rodriguez, Matej Vydra might miss the match due to injury for Burnley while Todd Cantwell remains uncertain for the visitors.
We predict a 2-0 win for Burnley at home.
Predicted Lineups :
Burnley (4-4-2) : Pope, Lowton. Mee, Tarkowski, Taylor, Gudmundsson, Brownhill, Westwood, McNeil, Wood, Barnes.
Norwich City (4-3-3) : Krul, Aarons, Hanley, Gibson, Williams, Gilmour, Normann, Lees Melou, Rashica, Pukki, Sargent.